NGX Daily Market Summary – Monday, November 3, 2025

The Nigerian equities market kicked off the week on a slightly negative note, as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) slipped by -0.25% to close at 154,126.46. Despite today's dip, the YTD return remains robust at 49.00%, affirming the ongoing bullish structure. Turnover grew by 11.54% to ₦22.90B (a four-week high), while traded volume jumped to 615.92M shares, suggesting heightened institutional activity at the start of November. However, breadth was notably weak at 0.51x, with 21 advancers overshadowed by 41 decliners, signaling broad-based profit taking. Notably, the Naira also continued its recovery, appreciating 0.47% against the USD.

Significant Market Breadth Trends

• Market breadth remains negative: With only 21 advancers versus 41 decliners, the breadth ratio at 0.51x highlights widening participation in profit taking, a potential cautionary flag for short term bulls.
• Volume up in 70 stocks, down in 73: Volume expansion is not yet marketwide, reflecting selective institutional rotation.
• Turnover surge suggests renewed institutional focus: Institutions dominated trading by accounting for 71.45% of volume and a striking 91.57% of traded value, versus retail at just 8.43% of value.

Top Gainers and Losers: Day Highlights

Insights & Predictions

• Turnover up +11.54%: The spike signals fresh institutional inflows and selective bargain hunting, but with much of the buying clustered in a handful of heavyweight stocks. This is a liquidity positive unless persistent outflows from mid/small caps spill over.
• Advancers vs. Decliners: The persistent negative breadth and expanding advance/decline gap warrants caution. Bearish divergences are forming, suggesting a short-term cooling period or consolidation.
• Unusual Volumes:
  • UBA (Banking): Volume up +585.8% over 90-day average — signals renewed institutional accumulation.
  • ASOSAVINGS: Astounding +4909% volume surge, paired with strong price momentum (+24.4% 5D, YTD +114%). Likely to attract continued speculative flows.
  • GTCO and ACCESSCORP: Both banking giants, coinciding volume spikes (+148% and +104%) with mixed price actions, hinting at sector rotation.
• YTD Top Gainers & Losers — Contrasts & Continuity:
  • ASOSAVINGS dominates with +114% YTD and is also a top 5-day and unusual volume leader—a classic momentum stock, but RSI at 95 (extreme overbought), so watch for sharp corrections.
  • HONYFLOUR repeats as both today's top loser and a leading YTD decliner — downward pressure remains unrelenting.
  • ARADEL is present in both bearish 15DMA cross list & top losers, with institutional-led declines and a previously elevated RSI (now falling), warning of extended capitulation risk.
  • MERVALUE appears among both today's and YTD's top losers, combining technical breakdown with sustained outflows.
• Bullish Momentum Alerts (15D/50D cross, RSI/MACD confirmation):
  • VSPBONDETF: Bullish 15DMA breakout; MACD remains negative but converging—early reversal watcher.
  • CHAMPION: Crossed 15DMA, RSI still well below overbought (54.4), positive MACD—could be a stealth accumulation play.
• Bearish Momentum Alerts (RSI <30, 15DMA breakdown):
  • ARADEL & MERVALUE: Negative MACD, falling below 15DMA, continued exit signals.
  • UNILEVER and FCMB: Bearish cross below 15DMA with -4.48% and -3.37% moves, technicals suggesting further downside.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (Champion Brew.): RSI 54.4 (neutral, not overbought), positive MACD histogram, yet YTD return at -9.8%. Potential for mean reversion rise if recent strengthening holds.
• ASOSAVINGS: RSI at extreme overbought (95), momentum red-hot, but parabolic volume upsurge could precede sharp profit-taking—wary momentum longs watch for reversal.
• HONYFLOUR: High dividend yield (1.4%) but in deep technical and fundamental decline. Yield trap risk—don’t be lured solely by dividends.
• VSPBONDETF: +27.9% with RSI just 40, signals price may have more upside if flows persist.

Sector Heatmaps

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Yield Plays

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share — this intense activity may presage near-term volatility or announce an accumulation phase from big players prepping for Q4 positioning.
• ACCESSCORP: >10% institutional value share; volume jump indicates strategic entry/exit from funds.
• ARADEL: 7.18% institutional trade value—coincides with sharp price decline and bearish momentum.

Traders' Opportunities & Cautions

• Momentum traders: Watch ASOSAVINGS and VSPBONDETF for trending moves, but beware of reversion risk as RSIs approach exhaustion.
• Contrarian/Mean Reversion: CHAMPION (neutral RSI, positive MACD) and RTBRISCOE (bullish 15DMA cross, high yield, low beta) offer early signals of possible rebounds.
• Defensive income: DEAPCAP, RTBRISCOE—higher yields without excessive volatility but vet for sustainability.
• Avoid chasing high dividend losers like HONYFLOUR until price momentum stabilizes.
• Monitor top 10 institutional activity stocks for telltale rotation cues.
• Bearish crossers (ARADEL, MERVALUE, FCMB, UNILEVER): Beware of further technical breakdowns.

YTD Gainers & Losers Tables (Weekly View)

Market Activity Comparisons: Retail vs Institutional

• Institutions drove 71.45% of total volume and 91.57% of trade value, confirming foreign and local fund dominance at month-start.
  • Institutions focused on ZENITHBANK (4.74% vol share, 7.49% value share), ACCESSCORP, ARADEL, GTCO (17.75% value share), MTNN, all large caps; poised to set tone for the week.
  • Retail most active in MTNN (8.04% trade count), ACCESSCORP, GTCO, FCMB, ZENITHBANK, same names as institutions, but lower volumes/value—signal chasing and front-running of big orders.
  • Pattern Insight: Retail and institutional flows align on top banks and telco; short-term volatility and intraday arbitrage opportunities likely in those names.
  • Strategy Angle: High correlation between institutional and retail most-traded stocks suggests that liquidity and news flow are concentrated, favoring active traders.

Previous Week’s Performance & Trends

A brief reversal last week, with the ASI posting a minor loss, as increased volatility and profit-taking swept the market. Despite this, buying in index heavyweights and selected ETFs/VSPBONDETF quietly continued. Early November is starting on a more active note as smart money rotates into defensives (Banks, Bond ETFs, high-yield value laggards), but market breadth and technicals argue for tactical flexibility.

Key Takeaways & Strategic Suggestions

• Momo names like ASOSAVINGS are riding ferocious volume and price upside, but traders should guard against parabolic reversals as overbought readings peak.
• Watch for mean reversion buys in neutral/mildly bullish stocks with robust technical crossovers like CHAMPION and RTBRISCOE.
• Institutionals dictate direction—closely watch sector allocations in Banks & ETFs for reversal or breakout confirmation this week.
• Dividend seekers: Focus on high-yield, low-beta setups with upward technical cross—RTBRISCOE, DEAPCAP, defensive income angles.
• Short-term risk rises for high-yield losers like HONYFLOUR—avoid unless price stabilizes above key moving averages.
• Leverage retail/institutional overlap for quick trades in liquid names.

Hidden Insights: The clear clustering of institutional trades in financial heavyweights suggests big money is setting the market's tone, while parabolic volume in select speculative names could quickly flip direction. Monitor sudden reversals in proposed momo leaders and remain nimble as breadth weakens.